***G-Man's College Week 14***

[G-Man!]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.
Season 167-131. (56.%). +11,684.00

Tuesday.
Kent+23.5 over Buffalo. 2 units
Buffalo was lined as a Pk when playing Akron two weeks ago and won 41-30.
Today they are giving 23, when Akron last week only gave Kent 10.5.
Too many points here.


Toledo -8.5 Over Akron. 2 units
How they struggled last week against Ohio was mainly because they lost starting QB Gleason. The backup was not able to move the ball. Toledo was SHUT OUT in the second half.
Gleason is listed as Questionable today, so Im hoping he starts.

 

[G-Man!]

Thursday.
Memphis +14 (unranked) over Tulane ranked #18. 10 units<<<
Memphis 1H +7.5 . 2 units.
Full game ML win here +460. 2 units


Division battle of two, 9-2 teams.
This is like a Bowl game.

Some capping factors I use.
They each played 6 common opponents.
Tulane overall season scoring record averages. 39-17.
Memphis overall season scoring record averages 35-22.

Common Opponents: (*)=home. @=away
Navy (7-3) a plus scoring of 32-23.. (Memhis@ lost-44-56) (Tulane* won 35-0.)
Rice. (3-8) A negative of 21-25. (Memphis* won (27-20) (Tulane* won 24-10.)
Charlotte.(4-7) a Negative (23-34) .(Memphis* won(35-28) Tulane won@ 34-3)
UAB.(3-8) Negative. (26-34). (Memphis* won. 53-18). Tulane won@ (71-20)
North Texas/(34-36.Negative team. (Memphis won *(52-44). Tulane won @(45-37)
South Florida (6-5) positive (31-28). Memphis won.@21-3. Tulane won *45-10.
Vs commomn opponents
Tulane is 6-0. Memphis is 5-1.
Tulane Scoring vs Common teams was 254 -80.
Memphis scoring vs Common teams was 233 -169.

In the 6 games. Mempis won they scored more than Tulane in a 4 of the 6 games. Memphis scored 188.
Tulane scored 219.
On defense, Memphis allowed 113.. Tulane only allowed 80. (0 vs Navy).
The one game that was what caused the main scoring difference - was NAVY.

Why did Tulane get ranked at #18) with the same 9-2 W-L record as unranked Memphis?
Because:
Tulane played Kan State (8-3) a positive scoring team, (30-21) and Tulane Lost * 27-34.
They played Oklahoma (6-5) a positive scoring team, (25-20). and lost@ 19-34.
U La-Lafayette (9-2) a postive scoring team(35-22) and WON @41-33 .
They played Temple, a Negative scoring team (19-36) and won 52-6.
The win over Navy- while Memphis lost to Navy. ( Thats why Ratings are misleading)

Tulane played one FCS 1-AA team Southeast La. which isnt competitive team.
WE remove one game for overall scoring accuracy. with Souteast La.

That makes the true scoring season numbers for Tulane 39-17. Not 41-17.
Memphis played one FCS team North Alabama.
Their numbers improved to 38.8 on offense but worsened to 24 on defense. From 35-22. (Remember the NAVY game).

Memphis played.
UTSA. - A Positive scoring team (33-31). and lost 36-44.
Middle Tenn State. A negative scoring tea, (17-34) and won 24-7.
Florida State. A negative scoring team, (15-27) and won 20--12.
Troy. A negative scoring team (23-29) and won 38-17.


Not only are the games listed with opponent game-scoring numbers, here are the actual W-L records of teams played.

Memphis played 10 games vs FBS 1-A teams.
They were 7-0 vs non-winning record teams and
1-2 vs winning record teams.
They played only 3 winners

Tulane played 10 games vs FBS 1-A teams
They were 5-0 vs non-winning record teams and
3-2 vs winning record teams.
They played 5 winners.

One main factor is the NAVY game.
When Memphis played Navy and lost 44-56, they played all the first string NAVY starters, including outstanding QB Blake Horvath, who was the entire offense in that game. He passed for 192 yds and ran for 211!
(^^Reason for my ML+460 Play on Memphis.)

When Tulane played Navy - Horvath played 6 snaps and was out. Injured.
Yet -Tulane only could put up only 35 points in that game and 14 were in the last 4th quarter!
(^^ Reason for my 1H play on Memphis +7.5 ).

Navy only had 8 first downs!
The backup QB Woodson, had 24 yds rushing and 13 yds passing!
(^^ Reason for my 1H play on Memphis +7.5 ).

Final NOTE!
Last year Memphis was a 39-29 scoring team with a 10-3-1 record!
Last year Tulane was a 26-21 scoring team within 11-3 record.

Tulane last year beat Memphis 31-21. This is a revenge game for Memphis.

Memphis returns 17 starters from last year with the starting QB.

Tulane returns 14 starters without their Staring QB from last year.
Tulane did get transfer QB Thompson from Oregon this year but he never played this year!
Instead, they got former Rutgers QB Evan Simon, who was NOT a starter at Rutgers?.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Thank you G Man I was just waffling on weather to put Memphis in my teaser with Ohio state and the Clippers

Cheers on a outstanding season

 

[MLB]

Well thought out and researched analysis. Very rare to get this kind of breakdown on here but you always do a good job with backing up you plays.

 

[G-Man!]

Thank you G Man I was just waffling on weather to put Memphis in my teaser with Ohio state and the Clippers

Cheers on a outstanding season

Hope you sweep SmartMoney - Happy Thanksgiving.

Well thought out and researched analysis. Very rare to get this kind of breakdown on here but you always do a good job with backing up you plays.

Appreciate the feedback MLB! BOL
Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[killykill]

Good Luck Today Gman and Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[RoadDog]

Such an excellent call and write up on Memphis. I'm a newbie to this forum, but I'll be paying attention to your posts going forward. Congratulations! I followed Small thank you.

 

[RoadDog]

Oops, I was watching Gren Bay game and checking Tulane score on Yahoo Sports. Read end of qtr 4. So sorry for the early post. I feel like the guy in the commercial bringing duck to the Oregon tailgate party.

 

[lakrfan2000]

G Money, Outstanding analysis, write-up, and win on Memphis!
Happy Thanksgiving brother!

 

[bluefish33]

e

G Money, Outstanding analysis, write-up, and win on Memphis!
Happy Thanksgiving brother!

Thanks for making my day Gman!! You nailed it big time, keep on trucking brother!

 

[G-Man!]

Friday
Noon
Navy +2.5 over E. Carolina. 5 units
EC wont be able to stop the Navy ground game.
See my writeup above, about Navy in yesterday's Memphis game.

Noon
Oregon State +19 over Boise. 3 units
Last common opponent - Boise beat SanJose St 42-21 on four (4) SJSU turnovers. Oregon St lost to SJSU 13-24 on Three(3) Oregon St turnovers. Line difference in both games was Boise -14 and Org St-3. Boise is over lined here by 8 points.
Boise has the worst pass defense in the conference (#12-DEAD LAST) and last week

Oregon State QB Gulbranson, put up 41 points with 294 yards passing on Wash State last week!
The points re too many as Both teams held SJSU to 24-21 p[oints and turnovers dictated the offensive scores..

Ohio-17 over Ball State. 3 units.
Ball state is the worst defense in the conference allowing 40 points per game. Much like KENT!
Ohio has a 20 pt defense which should shut down Ball state all day.

Noon
Oklahoma State +17(-120) over Colorado. 3 units
I bet against Colorado last week vs Kansas and Im doing again with Okie State.
Also - Okie started a new first-time QB starter Smith last week, (named Big 12 Newcomer of the Week) and he put up 48 points! Maybe that's all that was wrong for Okie all year...

Noon
Wisconsin +1 over Minnesota. 3 units
The better team is Wisconsin, considering they played Oregon to a 13-16 loss, Penn State13-28 and Alabama 10-42 which inflated their defense scoring numbers.
Minny played PSU last week and it was a battle of 1 point loss.
They wont have much left at Wisconsin today. These same two played last year with nearly identical players and Wisky won 28-14 at Minnesota.

3:30PM
Ole Miss -26 over Mississippi State. 5 units
I had Florida and ML over Ole Miss last week - but that was because Fla was an up and coming team and Ole Miss was off that stunning win over Georgia the week before..
Ole Miss is #4 on offense and #5 on defense in the nation.
Ole Miss, facing Miss State, is like playing an FCS team now.
It shouldn't be close.

3:30
Utah +9.5 over UCF 2 units

7:30PM
Georgia-18 over GT. 5 units
GT played Notre Dame and lost 31-13. ND is not in the category of Georgia.
Philo, the current GT quarterback has started 3 games this year. None of the teams he faced were on the level of Georgia, even though he beat Miami Fla 2 weeks ago in Georgia.
Georgia faced five top 15 ranked teams losing to only Ole Miss and Alabama.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Thank you I very much appreciate the consistency of you adding a weighted unit to you handicapping analysis.

 

[TWW]

Awesome analysis and call today. Thanks!

 

[deadeyedick]

Friday
Noon
Navy +2.5 over E. Carolina. 5 units
EC wont be able to stop the Navy ground game.
See my writeup above, about Navy in yesterday's Memphis game.

Noon
Oregon State +19 over Boise. 3 units
Last common opponent - Boise beat SanJose St 42-21 on four (4) SJSU turnovers. Oregon St lost to SJSU 13-24 on Three(3) Oregon St turnovers. Line difference in both games was Boise -14 and Org St-3. Boise is over lined here by 8 points.
Boise has the worst pass defense in the conference (#12-DEAD LAST) and last week

Oregon State QB Gulbranson, put up 41 points with 294 yards passing on Wash State last week!
The points re too many as Both teams held SJSU to 24-21 p[oints and turnovers dictated the offensive scores..

Ohio-17 over Ball State. 3 units.
Ball state is the worst defense in the conference allowing 40 points per game. Much like KENT!
Ohio has a 20 pt defense which should shut down Ball state all day.

Noon
Oklahoma State +17(-120) over Colorado. 3 units
I bet against Colorado last week vs Kansas and Im doing again with Okie State.
Also - Okie started a new first-time QB starter Smith last week, (named Big 12 Newcomer of the Week) and he put up 48 points! Maybe that's all that was wrong for Okie all year...

Noon
Wisconsin +1 over Minnesota. 3 units
The better team is Wisconsin, considering they played Oregon to a 13-16 loss, Penn State13-28 and Alabama 10-42 which inflated their defense scoring numbers.
Minny played PSU last week and it was a battle of 1 point loss.
They wont have much left at Wisconsin today. These same two played last year with nearly identical players and Wisky won 28-14 at Minnesota.

3:30PM
Ole Miss -26 over Mississippi State. 5 units
I had Florida and ML over Ole Miss last week - but that was because Fla was an up and coming team and Ole Miss was off that stunning win over Georgia the week before..
Ole Miss is #4 on offense and #5 on defense in the nation.
Ole Miss, facing Miss State, is like playing an FCS team now.
It shouldn't be close.

3:30
Utah +9.5 over UCF 2 units

7:30PM
Georgia-18 over GT. 5 units
GT played Notre Dame and lost 31-13. ND is not in the category of Georgia.
Philo, the current GT quarterback has started 3 games this year. None of the teams he faced were on the level of Georgia, even though he beat Miami Fla 2 weeks ago in Georgia.
Georgia faced five top 15 ranked teams losing to only Ole Miss and Alabama.

Nay QB Horvath is OUT today .... affect your play on Navy??

 

[Easyskanker420]

Great analysis on the Memphis game. Respect.

 

[G-Man!]

Nebraska +3 over Iowa..3 units
Neb played all of their games against ranked teams on the road.
This one they should win.

Posted late. Play live.

 

[G-Man!]

Saturday

Noon
Wake Forest+3.5 over Duke. 8 units<<<<
WF played 3 top-ranked teams and all their defensive numbers were hit because of it.
Duke played Miami Fla and allowed 53 points.
Duke has 8 wins and is in a bowl game.
WF never allowed over 42 to Miami, 40 to Ole Miss and 49 to Clemson.
Demons win it.
Wake returns 16 starters from a year ago with the QB and this is a revenger game from last year for Shake-N-Wake.

Noon
Ohio State -19 over Michigan. 10 Units <<<<
Hate game as usually except this time the Wolverines have little chance agains that Buckeye defense. Mich got 14.5 at home vs Oregonand this line is only 5 points higher.
Mich only put up 17 vs the Ducks and likely wont score as much today in the Shoe!

Noon
South Carolina +3 over Clemson. 8 units<<<<
S/Caro played 4 ranked teams , this is No.5 today.
Clemson played one ranked team /Georgia in the first game of the season.
Love dogs with 20 point defenses and here is another with S.Caro allowing only 18 per game which is Amazing since they played no less than SEVEN (7) winning record teams which were all positive scoring teams.


NOON
Tennessee -10 over Vanderbilt. 4 units
Both teams played ranked opponents .
Vandy beat Alabama SU as a 23pt dog. That game was full over turnovers - 3 by each team -The score was not a true reflection of the game.

Since that game Vandy has struggled to put up 300 total yards in every game (except Ball state) and except last week they put up 308 on LSU.
Tennessee is a true 13 point defense, and thats what shuts down Vandy.


3:30
California+13. over SMU. 3 units
SMU played one ranked team - BYU#19. They only scored 15 points in a 15-19 loss.
Cal is another 20 point defensive dog.


3:30
Boston College -4 over Pitt. 5 units
The BC offense has come alive. They re averaging 32 pts per game last 4 vs four winning record teams!

3:30
Notre Dame-7 over USC. 4 units.
Superior Defense with ND.
USC played well vs another great defense -Penn State bur PSU had 4 titnopvers in that game.
Dame has the far better run game and run defense. They also average 39 pts per game vs 7 teams with winning records. This is a revenge game for USC but ND is better today than last year.
ISC is a 20pts dog here so this one could go either way. Im banking ion the Run gam for ND.

May be back before 3:30 with more or later. Work in progress all day.

 

[killykill]

Good Luck G

 

[tutow1951]

Thank you Sir. You cant be that lucky, so to me your that GOOD.

 

[G-Man!]

Clean up on Isle "NOON!"
What a disastter OHIO State was.
Wake got beat on a last play bomb with no time on the clock.

Seems like top ranked favorites choked this week.


LATE GAMES 6PM +
6:00PM'
Cincinnati +3 over TCU. 4 units

6:30.
Wyoming +18.5 over Wash State. 4 units.
Cowboys did well last week vs Boise.
Boise beat Wash St. 45-24.

7PM
Oklahoma +6 over LSU. 4 units
OK is 54th vs the pass and number 17 against the run. Solid numbers for a fog with a 20pt defense.
LSU has slipped all year.


7:30
Texas-4 over A&M. 5 units.


7:30
Oregon -18 over Washington. 10 units.<<<<<<
Revenge game for Oregon.

7:30
Kan State+3 ver Iowa State. 5 units

11PM
New Mexico-3 over Hawaii. 5 units.
NM runs for 6.7 yds per rush. 250 per game.